quantilope surveyed 400 consumers aged 18-69 to understand how to prioritize breakfast cereal flavors that have the greatest preference and reach.
We used a MaxDiff analysis to first prioritize flavor preferences and then applied a TURF analysis to determine the optimal mix of flavors to reach the largest target group.
More specifically, operating as if we were the brand Honey Bunches of Oats, we tested four key cereal flavor concepts to see which combination would reach the widest target group: Frosted, Chocolate, Nuts, and Berry. These four concepts were tested in terms of like, appeal, and purchase likelihood.
Looking at particular drivers of these four concepts, ‘ingredients’ and ‘flavor’ are by far the most important for purchase likelihood. Aspects such as brand, packaging, and name, are considerably less important yet performing well, pointing to the established brand loyalty consumers may have.
Aside from our four concept tests, we also asked about general flavor preferences. As shown below, cereal consumers generally prefer simple flavors, such as Honey and Cinnamon, and tend to shy away from less traditional flavors like Cookie Dough or Cupcake. However, consumers do prefer to have some flavor in their cereal as opposed to plain.
From our data, we also know that 34% of consumers buy a variety of flavors. To determine the optimal mix, we used a TURF analysis which shows the incremental reach each flavor individually provides.
The TURF indicates that Honey (reach of 41%) and Cinnamon (reach of 21%) are essential flavors in a product portfolio, as both were included in every optimization combination. Notably, all optimization models include a mix of traditional and non-traditional flavors, suggesting that consumers may like the option of both. And variety is something worth investing in, considering a cereal brand can reach 95% of consumers by offering a mix of flavors. This is apparent in the chart below, which shows Cookie dough accounting for a portion of the ideal flavor combination reaching 95% of consumers, despite scoring very low in terms of general flavor preference.
Though for some cereal consumers, it’s not just about flavor. From a health standpoint, health-conscious consumers are significantly more likely to purchase the Nuts and Chocolate concepts compared to non-health conscious consumers.
This makes sense, considering Nuts and Chocolate are the only two concepts tested to advertise wholesome grains, vitamins, and minerals on the packaging (along with Chocolate as gluten-free). In fact, ‘nutritional content’ even came up as a key driver for Chocolate, despite being a lower priority for all other concepts tested. Knowing this, when introducing a Nut or Chocolate cereal, brands may benefit from marketing the new product in health-focused publications.
The full insights dashboard including a deep dive into the MaxDiff results, how to optimize your product mix using a TURF analysis, and further insights into consumers’ cereal flavor preferences is available below.